Bowl Projections
First off, this may all be wrong. I'm speculating on what may happen this Saturday. But it's still fun, so below are my predictions for the BCS bowls as well as some rambling.
College Football has been insane this year. I must say, I used to be one of the people that thought it was crazy that there was no playoff, and I was behind the idea of instituting one. But, that was when you have multiple (like more than 2) undefeateds, or Lots of 1 loss teams, and it's tough to decide who should play in the Championship. In a season like this, the season WAS the playoff. It just goes to show how important Every game is. If you lose, too bad, that could be the whole season. I'm not sure what the real answer is. I originally thought an 8 team playoff would be good. Now I think maybe a 4 team. This works best if you have say 1 undefeated team, and 3 1 loss teams. It's tough to choose which 1 loss team should play in the Championship, so have a 4 team playoff. But then what if the 5th ranked team also only has 1 loss? They lose out? Or what if there are 2 teams undefeated? That works out perfect, you just let them play. But if there was 4 team playoff, 2 one loss teams would be included with them, which doesn't seem fair.
Anyway, as for this season, I think LSU had the most talent, and probably was the "best" team, but they couldn't get it done when it counted. Les Miles is probably gonna go to Michigan, which is perfect because I already don't like him :) For all my Michigan hating, I actually think Lloyd Carr was a very good coach, and it's a shame to see him go.
Before their QB's got hurt, I thought Oregon, and Oklahoma were probably the next best teams in the country. So basically, you're going to end up with a title game of teams that I don't think really deserve to be there, but hey, they won their games. I think Missouri will lose to Oklahoma (who's QB is back) in the Big 12 title game. That leaves us with a National title game of West Virginia vs. Ohio State. What's funny, is Ohio State probably has a better chance of winning that game then it did the year before against Florida, when the Buckeyes were heavily favoured.
Florida's another crazy team. I don't like them, so I'm glad they lost 3 times, but I'm not really sure how they lost 3 times. Another team that's better than their record. If you put them up against Ohio State or West Virginia right now they would be right in it. Really, all the teams in the top 10 right now would probably give each other a serious run for their money.
Trying to figure out the bowl match ups is guesswork. We're trying to predict who the bowls will want to be playing there. Some picks are automatic as the bowl is aligned with a certain conference. They look like this:
Rose-Big Ten Champ, Pac-10 Champ
Sugar-SEC Champ
Fiesta-Big 12 Champ
Orange-ACC Champ
The only BCS conference that doesn't have a specific bowl/champ agreement is the Big East.
The biggest loser Saturday could be Missouri. Right now they are the number one team in the country. Lose to Oklahoma and they probably miss a BCS bowl entirely! Each conference can only have two teams in the BCS. The Big 12 would have Oklahoma and either Kansas/Missouri. That is gonna be one crazy choice. Missouri beat Kansas, but then lost to Oklahoma twice (assuming that happens). Are they really going to select that 2 loss Missouri team? I see things playing out like this.
Title Game-West Virginia vs. Ohio State
The Rose Bowl loses Ohio State, so they get to choose next. They can not select Conference Champions just at large teams. They may want to take a Big 10 team, but the most attractive is Illinois. I bet they skip the Big 10 and take the most attractive at-large team, Georgia. So we have
Rose Bowl-USC vs. Georgia (good game)
The Orange Bowl chooses next. Of the at-large teams out there Kansas is probably the most attractive.
Orange Bowl-Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
The Fiesta Bowl chooses next. They automatically get Oklahoma as Big 12 champ, and being in Arizona, 10-2 Arizona St. fits in perfectly
Fiesta Bowl-Oklahoma vs. Arizona St.
Finally the Sugar Bowl gets LSU as SEC champ, and Hawaii who will gain an automatic berth per the BCS rules.
Sugar Bowl-LSU vs. Hawaii
So, who were the losers? Missouri. They're really just the only worthy team that would be left out. Florida would also be a good choice but the SEC already has LSU and Georgia, so no argument there. All of this of course hinges on LSU beating Tennessee, WVU beating Pittsburgh, Oklahoma beating Missouri, Arizona St. beating Arizona, USC beating UCLA, Virginia Tech beating Boston College, and Hawaii beating Washington. Clearly, things could change. The only people that are sitting pretty are Ohio State (who at worst is going to the Rose Bowl), and Georgia (who will probably be the most coveted at-large team). I also think Kansas is in good shape. We'll see how this all turns out come Saturday after the games, and then Sunday when the actual selections are announced.
College Football has been insane this year. I must say, I used to be one of the people that thought it was crazy that there was no playoff, and I was behind the idea of instituting one. But, that was when you have multiple (like more than 2) undefeateds, or Lots of 1 loss teams, and it's tough to decide who should play in the Championship. In a season like this, the season WAS the playoff. It just goes to show how important Every game is. If you lose, too bad, that could be the whole season. I'm not sure what the real answer is. I originally thought an 8 team playoff would be good. Now I think maybe a 4 team. This works best if you have say 1 undefeated team, and 3 1 loss teams. It's tough to choose which 1 loss team should play in the Championship, so have a 4 team playoff. But then what if the 5th ranked team also only has 1 loss? They lose out? Or what if there are 2 teams undefeated? That works out perfect, you just let them play. But if there was 4 team playoff, 2 one loss teams would be included with them, which doesn't seem fair.
Anyway, as for this season, I think LSU had the most talent, and probably was the "best" team, but they couldn't get it done when it counted. Les Miles is probably gonna go to Michigan, which is perfect because I already don't like him :) For all my Michigan hating, I actually think Lloyd Carr was a very good coach, and it's a shame to see him go.
Before their QB's got hurt, I thought Oregon, and Oklahoma were probably the next best teams in the country. So basically, you're going to end up with a title game of teams that I don't think really deserve to be there, but hey, they won their games. I think Missouri will lose to Oklahoma (who's QB is back) in the Big 12 title game. That leaves us with a National title game of West Virginia vs. Ohio State. What's funny, is Ohio State probably has a better chance of winning that game then it did the year before against Florida, when the Buckeyes were heavily favoured.
Florida's another crazy team. I don't like them, so I'm glad they lost 3 times, but I'm not really sure how they lost 3 times. Another team that's better than their record. If you put them up against Ohio State or West Virginia right now they would be right in it. Really, all the teams in the top 10 right now would probably give each other a serious run for their money.
Trying to figure out the bowl match ups is guesswork. We're trying to predict who the bowls will want to be playing there. Some picks are automatic as the bowl is aligned with a certain conference. They look like this:
Rose-Big Ten Champ, Pac-10 Champ
Sugar-SEC Champ
Fiesta-Big 12 Champ
Orange-ACC Champ
The only BCS conference that doesn't have a specific bowl/champ agreement is the Big East.
The biggest loser Saturday could be Missouri. Right now they are the number one team in the country. Lose to Oklahoma and they probably miss a BCS bowl entirely! Each conference can only have two teams in the BCS. The Big 12 would have Oklahoma and either Kansas/Missouri. That is gonna be one crazy choice. Missouri beat Kansas, but then lost to Oklahoma twice (assuming that happens). Are they really going to select that 2 loss Missouri team? I see things playing out like this.
Title Game-West Virginia vs. Ohio State
The Rose Bowl loses Ohio State, so they get to choose next. They can not select Conference Champions just at large teams. They may want to take a Big 10 team, but the most attractive is Illinois. I bet they skip the Big 10 and take the most attractive at-large team, Georgia. So we have
Rose Bowl-USC vs. Georgia (good game)
The Orange Bowl chooses next. Of the at-large teams out there Kansas is probably the most attractive.
Orange Bowl-Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
The Fiesta Bowl chooses next. They automatically get Oklahoma as Big 12 champ, and being in Arizona, 10-2 Arizona St. fits in perfectly
Fiesta Bowl-Oklahoma vs. Arizona St.
Finally the Sugar Bowl gets LSU as SEC champ, and Hawaii who will gain an automatic berth per the BCS rules.
Sugar Bowl-LSU vs. Hawaii
So, who were the losers? Missouri. They're really just the only worthy team that would be left out. Florida would also be a good choice but the SEC already has LSU and Georgia, so no argument there. All of this of course hinges on LSU beating Tennessee, WVU beating Pittsburgh, Oklahoma beating Missouri, Arizona St. beating Arizona, USC beating UCLA, Virginia Tech beating Boston College, and Hawaii beating Washington. Clearly, things could change. The only people that are sitting pretty are Ohio State (who at worst is going to the Rose Bowl), and Georgia (who will probably be the most coveted at-large team). I also think Kansas is in good shape. We'll see how this all turns out come Saturday after the games, and then Sunday when the actual selections are announced.
posted by Graham at
10:27 AM
1 Comments:
hmm no Syracuse in the mix?? wonder why......
(PS guess who, saw about your blogger via facebooook)
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